Could Bob Casey Win Pennsylvania Senate Race Recount?

In Pennsylvania’s closely watched U.S. Senate contest, a mandatory statewide recount is set to commence, marking a high-stakes faceoff between Democratic incumbent Sen. Bob Casey and Republican challenger David McCormick.
The Associated Press called the race for McCormick last week, projecting Casey could not make up the deficit based on uncounted ballots.
However, with the count continuing, preliminary tallies revealed McCormick’s narrow 28,000-vote lead falls within Pennsylvania’s 0.5 percent margin for a legally mandated recount, Secretary of State Al Schmidt announced Wednesday.
Casey declined the option to waive the recount by the noon deadline, cementing the next procedural steps for county election officials.
The chances are extremely unlikely because recounts rarely change the result by more than a few hundred votes.
For instance, a 2004 Washington State governor’s race recount shifted the result by 390 votes, a mere 0.014 percent of the total votes counted.
Similarly, a 2006 Vermont state auditor race recount changed the tally by 239 votes, or 0.107 percent of the total votes.
In the 2008 U.S. Senate election in Minnesota, a recount adjusted the result by 440 votes, representing 0.018 percent of the total vote.
The recount is scheduled to begin by Nov. 20, with counties aiming to complete the process by noon on Nov. 26.
The procedure, primarily using high-speed scanners on paper ballots, is expected to yield minimal changes. “It is an infinitesimal number, compared to the overall vote totals,” former Mercer County elections director Jeff Greenberg said, referencing the historical affect of recounts.
Nonetheless, tension builds while both campaigns dispute which ballots are eligible to count. While McCormick attended Senate orientation meetings in Washington, Casey’s campaign manager accused McCormick of attempting to “disenfranchise Pennsylvania voters.”
Adam Bonin, Casey’s lawyer, claimed that Republicans are systematically challenging the provisional ballots of registered Democrats, prolonging the counting process. “What we are seeing this year is more organized, more disciplined, more directed and more comprehensive than what we saw in 2020,” Bonin said.
While counties continue sorting provisional ballots, McCormick’s campaign consultant, Mark Harris, accused large Democratic-controlled counties of delaying ballot additions to the vote totals, dismissing Casey’s efforts as “lawfare to chip away at our lead.” Meanwhile, litigation looms over disputed ballots.
For example, Bucks County’s election board, led by Democrats, decided to count more than 400 mail-in ballots lacking a proper handwritten date on the outer envelope. Republicans have consistently contested this in court.
Though recent court rulings have supported counting these ballots, higher courts, including the Pennsylvania Supreme Court on Nov. 1, blocked their inclusion pending further litigation. As counties manage the recount and address ballot challenges from both campaigns, Pennsylvania braces for a possible prolonged legal battle.
This article includes reporting from The Associated Press